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#Math#Differentiation
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Logarithmic Derivatives, Elasticity, and Bounded Growth

Lesson 5AM produced y=Cekty = C \, e^{k t} as the solution family of the rate equation y=kyy' = k \, y, and Lesson 5PM introduced the derivative ddxlnx=1/x\dfrac{d}{d x} \ln x = 1/x together with logarithmic differentiation. The chain rule applied to lnf\ln f recasts the same machinery in two further directions. The logarithmic derivative f/ff' / f measures a relative rate of change, which is the natural language for comparing percentage growth in economics and which gives the demand-side notion of elasticity. The substitution u=Myu = M - y turns the rate equation into u=kuu' = -k u, so the equation y=k(My)y' = k(M - y) inherits a closed-form solution at no cost; this is the shape underlying bounded learning curves, mass-media diffusion of news, and the approach to steady state under intravenous infusion. This recitation applies both extensions, ending with the logistic family y=M/(1+Bect)y = M / (1 + B \, e^{-c t}).

The Logarithmic Derivative

For any positive differentiable ff, the chain rule for ln\ln gives

ddtlnf(t)  =  f(t)f(t).\frac{d}{d t} \ln f(t) \;=\; \frac{f'(t)}{f(t)}.

The right side compares the rate of change f(t)f'(t) to the current value f(t)f(t), so it has units of fraction per unit of tt. Multiplied by 100100, the same quantity reads as a percentage.

Definition 1 (Relative and percentage rate of change)

The relative rate of change of a positive differentiable function ff at time tt is the logarithmic derivative

f(t)f(t)  =  ddtlnf(t).\frac{f'(t)}{f(t)} \;=\; \frac{d}{d t} \ln f(t).

Multiplied by 100100, the same quantity is the percentage rate of change of ff at time tt.

An absolute change in money is meaningful only against an absolute base value. If beef costs £5.25\pounds 5.25 per kilogram and is rising at £0.75\pounds 0.75 per year while a car costs £12000\pounds 12\,000 and is rising at £1500\pounds 1500 per year, the slopes 0.750.75 and 15001500 are not directly comparable. The percentages

0.755.2514.3% per year,150012000=12.5% per year\frac{0.75}{5.25} \approx 14.3\% \text{ per year}, \qquad \frac{1500}{12\,000} = 12.5\% \text{ per year}

are, and show that the beef price is rising slightly faster in relative terms than the car price.

Example 1 (A national-income model)

A simple model for a country’s gross domestic product, measured in trillions of pounds and timed in years from January 1, 1990, takes the form

N(t)  =  4+0.05t+0.08et.N(t) \;=\; 4 + 0.05 \, t + 0.08 \, e^{-t}.

Find the percentage rate of change of NN on January 1, 1990, and on January 1, 1991.

By the sum rule and the formula for ekte^{k t} with k=1k = -1,

N(t)  =  0.050.08et.N'(t) \;=\; 0.05 - 0.08 \, e^{-t}.

The percentage rate of change is N(t)/N(t)N'(t)/N(t). At t=0t = 0,

N(0)N(0)  =  0.050.084+0.08  =  0.034.08    0.00735,\frac{N'(0)}{N(0)} \;=\; \frac{0.05 - 0.08}{4 + 0.08} \;=\; \frac{-0.03}{4.08} \;\approx\; -0.00735,

or about 0.74%-0.74\% per year; the economy is contracting. At t=1t = 1,

N(1)N(1)  =  0.050.08e14.05+0.08e1    0.02064.0794    0.00505,\frac{N'(1)}{N(1)} \;=\; \frac{0.05 - 0.08 \, e^{-1}}{4.05 + 0.08 \, e^{-1}} \;\approx\; \frac{0.0206}{4.0794} \;\approx\; 0.00505,

or about 0.5%0.5\% per year; the economy is growing. The transient term 0.08et0.08 \, e^{-t} controls the early dynamics; once it has decayed, N(t)4+0.05tN(t) \approx 4 + 0.05 \, t and the relative growth rate is approximately 0.05/(4+0.05t)0.05 / (4 + 0.05 \, t), positive but slowly decreasing as tt grows.

Example 2 (Relative growth of an investment)

The value of a certain investment is modelled by

V(t)  =  50000e0.4t,V(t) \;=\; 50\,000 \, e^{0.4 \sqrt{t}},

with tt in years. Use the logarithmic derivative to express the percentage rate of growth in closed form, and evaluate it at t=4t = 4 and t=9t = 9 years.

We take ln\ln of both sides first; by LI and LIV from Lesson 5PM,

lnV(t)  =  ln50000+0.4t1/2.\ln V(t) \;=\; \ln 50\,000 + 0.4 \, t^{1/2}.

Differentiating, with the power rule,

V(t)V(t)  =  ddt ⁣(ln50000+0.4t1/2)  =  0.2t.\frac{V'(t)}{V(t)} \;=\; \frac{d}{d t} \!\left( \ln 50\,000 + 0.4 \, t^{1/2} \right) \;=\; \frac{0.2}{\sqrt{t}}.

At t=4t = 4 the relative rate is 0.2/2=0.10.2/2 = 0.1, that is, 10%10\% per year. At t=9t = 9 it is 0.2/36.7%0.2/3 \approx 6.7\% per year. The investment is still growing at every t>0t > 0, but its fractional growth rate falls toward zero as tt increases (a hallmark of eate^{a \sqrt{t}} that distinguishes it from pure exponential growth eate^{a t}, whose relative rate is the constant aa).

Remark

Worked this way, the logarithmic derivative saves us the work of differentiating VV directly and then dividing: VV' would contain a stray factor of VV that immediately cancels. Our trick (take ln\ln first, then differentiate) is exactly the logarithmic differentiation of Lesson 5PM, here serving as a measurement rather than as a simplification.

Note (Constant relative rate forces exponential growth)

If f/f=kf' / f = k for some constant kk, then f=kff' = k \, f, which is the rate equation of Lesson 5AM. Its solutions are f(t)=Cektf(t) = C \, e^{k t}. A constant relative rate of change is therefore equivalent to exponential growth (or decay, when k<0k < 0): there are no other functions with that property.

Problem 1

A country’s population is described by P(t)=200e0.02t+50tP(t) = 200 \, e^{0.02 \, t} + 50 \, t, with PP in millions and tt in years from 19901990.

  1. Compute P(t)P'(t).
  2. Find the percentage rate of growth at t=0t = 0 and at t=25t = 25, in closed form, by evaluating P(t)/P(t)P'(t)/P(t) at each time.
  3. As tt grows large, which of the two terms dominates P(t)P(t)? Use that to predict the long-run percentage rate of growth, and check the prediction against P(100)/P(100)P'(100)/P(100).
Problem 2

The price-level index of a small economy is modelled by

I(t)  =  100e0.03t(1+0.1t),I(t) \;=\; 100 \, e^{0.03 t} \, (1 + 0.1 \, t),

with tt in years.

  1. Take lnI\ln I, then differentiate, to express I/II'/I as a single closed-form expression without ever computing II' directly.
  2. Evaluate the percentage rate of change at t=0t = 0, t=5t = 5, and t=20t = 20.
  3. Show that I/I0.03=3%I'/I \to 0.03 = 3\% as tt \to \infty, and explain in one sentence why the linear factor’s contribution vanishes.
Problem 3

A function ff satisfies f(0)=8f(0) = 8 and f(t)/f(t)=0.25f'(t)/f(t) = -0.25 for every t0t \geq 0.

  1. Identify the ODE that ff satisfies and write its closed-form solution using the solutions theorem.
  2. Find the time at which f(t)=1f(t) = 1, in closed form involving ln8\ln 8.
  3. Express the same time using ln2\ln 2 instead.

Elasticity of Demand

A demand function expresses the quantity qq that a market will buy at price pp. We write q=f(p)q = f(p) with ff positive and decreasing on the relevant range. Its derivative f(p)f'(p) is negative, but for us the meaningful comparison is the relative rate of change f(p)/f(p)f'(p) / f(p), which reads as quantity’s percentage response per unit of price.

The relative rate of change of price itself, with respect to pp, is

1pddp(p)  =  1p.\frac{1}{p} \cdot \frac{d}{d p}(p) \;=\; \frac{1}{p}.

Our ratio of the two relative rates is

f(p)/f(p)1/p  =  pf(p)f(p).\frac{f'(p)/f(p)}{1/p} \;=\; \frac{p \, f'(p)}{f(p)}.

This quantity is negative for every decreasing demand function, so economists multiply by 1-1 to keep their bookkeeping positive.

Definition 2 (Elasticity of demand)

For a demand function q=f(p)q = f(p) with p>0p > 0, f(p)>0f(p) > 0, and f(p)<0f'(p) < 0, the elasticity of demand at price pp is

E(p)  =  pf(p)f(p).E(p) \;=\; -\,\frac{p \, f'(p)}{f(p)}.

Demand is elastic at p0p_{0} when E(p0)>1E(p_{0}) > 1 and inelastic when E(p0)<1E(p_{0}) < 1.

Example 3 (Elasticity for a linear demand)

The demand for a certain metal is q=1002pq = 100 - 2 p (in millions of kilograms) at price pp pounds per kilogram, with 0<p<500 < p < 50.

  1. Compute E(p)E(p) in closed form.
  2. Evaluate E(30)E(30) and E(20)E(20), and interpret each.
  3. Find the price at which E(p)=1E(p) = 1.

With f(p)=1002pf(p) = 100 - 2 p, f(p)=2f'(p) = -2, so

E(p)  =  p(2)1002p  =  2p1002p.E(p) \;=\; -\,\frac{p \cdot (-2)}{100 - 2 p} \;=\; \frac{2 p}{100 - 2 p}.

At p=30p = 30, E(30)=60/(10060)=60/40=1.5E(30) = 60/(100 - 60) = 60/40 = 1.5. A 1%1\% price increase from £30\pounds 30 per kilogram will reduce quantity demanded by about 1.5%1.5\%. Demand is elastic.

At p=20p = 20, E(20)=40/(10040)=40/60=2/3E(20) = 40/(100 - 40) = 40/60 = 2/3. A 1%1\% price increase from £20\pounds 20 will reduce quantity demanded by only about 0.67%0.67\%. Demand is inelastic.

The unit-elastic price solves 2p/(1002p)=12 p / (100 - 2 p) = 1, that is, 2p=1002p2 p = 100 - 2 p, so p=25p = 25.

The economic significance of elasticity is its tie to revenue. With R(p)=pf(p)R(p) = p \, f(p), by the product rule,

R(p)  =  f(p)+pf(p)  =  f(p) ⁣[1+pf(p)f(p)]  =  f(p)[1E(p)].R'(p) \;=\; f(p) + p \, f'(p) \;=\; f(p) \!\left[ 1 + \frac{p \, f'(p)}{f(p)} \right] \;=\; f(p) \,\bigl[ 1 - E(p) \bigr].

Since f(p)>0f(p) > 0, the sign of R(p)R'(p) matches the sign of 1E(p)1 - E(p):

  • where demand is elastic (E>1E > 1), R(p)<0R'(p) < 0, so a price increase lowers revenue;
  • where demand is inelastic (E<1E < 1), R(p)>0R'(p) > 0, so a price increase raises revenue.
On the left, the linear demand curve q = 100 - 2p from p = 0 to p = 50, with a dashed vertical line at the unit-elastic price p = 25 and the regions labelled 'elastic' (p > 25) and 'inelastic' (p < 25). On the right, the revenue parabola R = p(100 - 2p) opening downward with its peak (25, 1250) marked, and arrows showing revenue rising for p < 25 and falling for p > 25.

The revenue parabola peaks at exactly p=25p = 25, the unit-elastic price. The second derivative test confirms the peak: R(p)=100p2p2R(p) = 100 p - 2 p^{2}, R(p)=1004pR'(p) = 100 - 4 p, R(p)=4<0R''(p) = -4 < 0 everywhere, so the unique critical point p=25p = 25 is a global maximum on the relevant range.

Problem 4

For the demand function q=2004pq = 200 - 4 p on 0p500 \leq p \leq 50, compute elasticity for 0<p<500 < p < 50:

  1. Find E(p)E(p) in closed form.
  2. Evaluate E(20)E(20) and E(40)E(40), and state whether demand is elastic or inelastic at each.
  3. Find the price at which E(p)=1E(p) = 1, and verify it is the price at which the revenue R(p)=pqR(p) = p \, q is maximised.
Problem 5

The demand for a fashion item is q=600e0.05pq = 600 \, e^{-0.05 \, p} at price pp pounds.

  1. Use the logarithmic-derivative form to show that E(p)=0.05pE(p) = 0.05 \, p.
  2. Find the price at which demand is unit-elastic.
  3. Compute the elasticity at p=10p = 10 and at p=30p = 30, and interpret each.
Problem 6

A demand function q=f(p)q = f(p) has constant elasticity E(p)=aE(p) = a for every p>0p > 0, where aa is a positive constant.

  1. Rewrite the elasticity condition as the logarithmic-derivative equation ddplnf(p)=a/p\dfrac{d}{d p} \ln f(p) = -a / p.
  2. Verify directly, by computing ddpln(Kpa)\dfrac{d}{d p} \ln(K p^{-a}) using LI and LIV, that f(p)=Kpaf(p) = K \, p^{-a} satisfies this equation for every positive constant KK.
  3. For a=1a = 1, show that the revenue R(p)=pf(p)R(p) = p \, f(p) is constant on the entire domain.

Bounded Growth: the Family y=k(My)y' = k(M - y)

A natural variant of y=kyy' = k y replaces the right side with k(My)k (M - y), where M>0M > 0 and k>0k > 0 are fixed constants. The variable MM acts as a ceiling: our rate of change is proportional to how far yy still lies below MM, so growth is fastest when yy is small and tapers off as yy approaches MM.

We let u=Myu = M - y. Then u=yu' = -y', and so

y(t)  =  k(My(t))becomesu(t)  =  ku(t).y'(t) \;=\; k \, (M - y(t)) \qquad \text{becomes} \qquad u'(t) \;=\; -k \, u(t).

The right-hand equation is the rate equation of Lesson 5AM with growth constant k-k. By the solutions theorem, u(t)=Aektu(t) = A \, e^{-k t} for some constant AA, and therefore

y(t)  =  MAekt.y(t) \;=\; M - A \, e^{-k t}.

If y(0)=0y(0) = 0, then A=MA = M and the closed form simplifies to y(t)=M(1ekt)y(t) = M(1 - e^{-k t}).

Theorem 1 (Solutions of y=k(My)y' = k(M - y))

For fixed constants k>0k > 0 and M>0M > 0, every solution of

y(t)  =  k(My(t))y'(t) \;=\; k \, (M - y(t))

has the form y(t)=MAekty(t) = M - A \, e^{-k t} for some constant AA. The solution with y(0)=0y(0) = 0 is

y(t)  =  M(1ekt).y(t) \;=\; M \, (1 - e^{-k t}).

When 0y(0)<M0 \leq y(0) < M, the curve grows upward toward the ceiling MM. If the starting value is already above MM, the same formula describes decay down toward MM instead.

Proof

Our substitution u=Myu = M - y above converts the ODE into u=kuu' = -k u, whose solutions are u(t)=Aektu(t) = A \, e^{-k t} by Lesson 5AM. Hence y(t)=MAekty(t) = M - A \, e^{-k t}. The initial condition y(0)=0y(0) = 0 gives MA=0M - A = 0, so A=MA = M and y(t)=M(1ekt)y(t) = M(1 - e^{-k t}).

To verify the differential equation directly, differentiate y(t)=MAekty(t) = M - A \, e^{-k t} by the formula for ekxe^{k x}: y(t)=kAekty'(t) = k A \, e^{-k t}. On the other hand k(My(t))=kAektk(M - y(t)) = k \, A \, e^{-k t}. The two expressions agree.

The bounded-growth curve y = M(1 - e^{-kt}) starting at the origin, rising concave down, and approaching the dashed horizontal line y = M from below without ever reaching it. The initial tangent line is drawn dotted; it meets the line y = M at the point t = 1/k.

Three numerical features of our curve y=M(1ekt)y = M(1 - e^{-k t}) follow at once, mirroring the time-constant analysis of Lesson 5R:

  • The initial slope y(0)=kMy'(0) = k M is the largest slope of the curve, since y(t)=kMekty'(t) = k M e^{-k t} decreases in tt.
  • The tangent at t=0t = 0 meets the line y=My = M at t=1/kt = 1/k; the curve at that time has height M(1e1)0.632MM(1 - e^{-1}) \approx 0.632 \, M.
  • y(t)My(t) \to M as tt \to \infty; the curve never reaches the ceiling but settles arbitrarily close to it.
Example 4 (Learning curve for nonsense syllables)

In a controlled experiment, a subject can memorise at most M=80M = 80 nonsense syllables in a row given enough study time. After tt minutes of study the subject can correctly memorise f(t)f(t) syllables, and ff satisfies

f(t)  =  k(Mf(t)),f(0)=0.f'(t) \;=\; k \, (M - f(t)), \qquad f(0) = 0.

The subject can memorise 4040 syllables after 1010 minutes. Find kk and predict the number retained after 3030 minutes of study.

By the theorem, f(t)=80(1ekt)f(t) = 80 \, (1 - e^{-k t}). The reading at t=10t = 10 gives

80(1e10k)  =  40,e10k  =  12.80 \, (1 - e^{-10 k}) \;=\; 40, \qquad e^{-10 k} \;=\; \tfrac{1}{2}.

Taking ln\ln and applying LII,

10k  =  ln2,k  =  ln210.-10 k \;=\; -\ln 2, \qquad k \;=\; \frac{\ln 2}{10}.

With this kk,

f(30)  =  80(1e3ln2)  =  80(123)  =  8078  =  70.f(30) \;=\; 80 \, (1 - e^{-3 \ln 2}) \;=\; 80 \, (1 - 2^{-3}) \;=\; 80 \cdot \tfrac{7}{8} \;=\; 70.

The subject can memorise 7070 syllables after 3030 minutes, three half-lives of the deficit Mf(t)M - f(t) removed from the initial gap of 8080 syllables.

Remark

If we reframe this as ”1010 minutes of study halves the remaining gap,” our problem turns into a half-life problem in disguise: the deficit Mf(t)=MektM - f(t) = M \, e^{-k t} is itself a pure exponential decay with the same constant k=(ln2)/10k = (\ln 2)/10. Lessons 5PM and 5R apply unchanged to that deficit.

Example 5 (Diffusion of news by mass media)

In a city of PP residents, news of a public official’s resignation is broadcast continuously by radio and television. The number f(t)f(t) of residents who have heard the news by time tt (in hours) satisfies

f(t)  =  k(Pf(t)),f(0)=0,f'(t) \;=\; k \, (P - f(t)), \qquad f(0) = 0,

because the rate at which new people hear is proportional to the number who have not yet heard. Half of the residents have heard the news 44 hours after release. When will 90%90\% have heard?

By the theorem, f(t)=P(1ekt)f(t) = P \, (1 - e^{-k t}). The half-population condition at t=4t = 4 gives 1e4k=1/21 - e^{-4 k} = 1/2, so e4k=1/2e^{-4 k} = 1/2 and k=(ln2)/4k = (\ln 2)/4.

The 90%90\% threshold solves

1ekt  =  0.9,ekt  =  0.1.1 - e^{-k t} \;=\; 0.9, \qquad e^{-k t} \;=\; 0.1.

Taking ln\ln,

kt  =  ln10,t  =  ln10k  =  4ln10ln2    42.3030.693    13.3 hours.-k t \;=\; -\ln 10, \qquad t \;=\; \frac{\ln 10}{k} \;=\; \frac{4 \, \ln 10}{\ln 2} \;\approx\; \frac{4 \cdot 2.303}{0.693} \;\approx\; 13.3 \text{ hours}.

About 1313 hours after release, 90%90\% of the city has heard the news.

Problem 7

A patient receives a continuous intravenous infusion of glucose. The excess glucose level A(t)A(t) above the equilibrium satisfies

A(t)  =  rλA(t),A(0)=0,A'(t) \;=\; r - \lambda \, A(t), \qquad A(0) = 0,

where rr is the (constant) rate of infusion in milligrams per minute and λ>0\lambda > 0 is the metabolic clearance constant.

  1. Rewrite the ODE as A(t)=λ(MA(t))A'(t) = \lambda \, (M - A(t)), identifying MM in terms of rr and λ\lambda.
  2. Use the bounded-growth theorem to write A(t)A(t) in closed form.
  3. With r=60r = 60 mg/min and λ=0.02\lambda = 0.02 per minute, find the limiting level MM, then find the time at which A(t)A(t) first reaches 0.9M0.9 M, in closed form involving ln10\ln 10.
Problem 8

A skydiver’s downward velocity v(t)v(t) satisfies v(t)=k(Mv(t))v'(t) = k (M - v(t)) with v(0)=0v(0) = 0, where MM is the terminal velocity and k>0k > 0. The skydiver’s velocity reaches half of terminal in 44 seconds.

  1. Find kk in closed form involving ln2\ln 2.
  2. Find the time at which the velocity first reaches 0.99M0.99 \, M.
  3. Show that the acceleration v(t)v'(t) is itself a pure exponential decay kMektk M \, e^{-k t}, and identify its half-life.
Problem 9

For the bounded-growth family y(t)=M(1ekt)y(t) = M(1 - e^{-k t}):

  1. Compute y(t)y'(t) and y(t)y''(t) in closed form. Confirm yy' is everywhere positive and yy'' everywhere negative on t0t \geq 0.
  2. Find the relative rate of change y/yy'/y in closed form, and show it is not constant in tt, unlike for pure exponential growth.
  3. Show that on any interval [a,a+(ln2)/k][a, a + (\ln 2)/k], yy covers exactly half of the gap remaining at the start of the interval. (Bounded growth as “half-of-what’s-left”.)

Logistic Growth

Our bounded-growth family handles populations that fill toward a ceiling at a rate proportional to the remaining gap. We meet a different shape (the S-curve) when the growth rate is also throttled by the size of the population itself in the early stage: a small population produces few offspring even with abundant resources, and an almost-full population grows slowly because the ceiling is near. The two effects together give us the logistic family

y(t)  =  M1+Bect,y(t) \;=\; \frac{M}{1 + B \, e^{-c t}},

with positive constants MM, BB, cc. As tt \to \infty, ect0e^{-c t} \to 0 and yMy \to M; at t=0t = 0, y(0)=M/(1+B)y(0) = M / (1 + B), which is small whenever BB is large.

Theorem 2 (The logistic ODE)

The logistic function y(t)=M/(1+Bect)y(t) = M / (1 + B \, e^{-c t}) satisfies

y(t)  =  cMy(t)(My(t)).y'(t) \;=\; \frac{c}{M} \, y(t) \, \bigl( M - y(t) \bigr).
Proof

We write u=1+Bectu = 1 + B \, e^{-c t}, so y=M/uy = M / u and u(t)=cBectu'(t) = -c B \, e^{-c t}. By the chain rule,

y(t)  =  Mu2u(t)  =  McBectu2.y'(t) \;=\; -\frac{M}{u^{2}} \cdot u'(t) \;=\; \frac{M \, c \, B \, e^{-c t}}{u^{2}}.

On the other hand, using u1=Bectu - 1 = B \, e^{-c t},

My  =  MMu  =  M(u1)u  =  MBectu,M - y \;=\; M - \frac{M}{u} \;=\; \frac{M(u - 1)}{u} \;=\; \frac{M \, B \, e^{-c t}}{u},

so

cMy(My)  =  cMMuMBectu  =  McBectu2,\frac{c}{M} \, y \, (M - y) \;=\; \frac{c}{M} \cdot \frac{M}{u} \cdot \frac{M \, B \, e^{-c t}}{u} \;=\; \frac{M \, c \, B \, e^{-c t}}{u^{2}},

which matches y(t)y'(t).

The logistic S-curve y = M/(1 + Be^{-ct}) starting near zero, rising sharply through the inflection point at the height y = M/2, and flattening toward the dashed asymptote y = M. The inflection point is marked with a dot, and the level y = M/2 is shown as a dotted horizontal line.

The right side of our logistic ODE is largest when the quadratic y(My)y(M - y) is largest. That product, viewed as a function of yy, is maximised at y=M/2y = M/2. So the logistic curve grows fastest at exactly half-capacity, and its graph has an inflection point at y=M/2y = M/2. Solving 1+Bect=21 + B \, e^{-c t} = 2 gives us the time of inflection t=(lnB)/ct = (\ln B) / c.

Example 6 (Fish stocked in a lake)

A lake is stocked with 100100 fish. Three months later there are 250250 fish. An ecological study predicts the lake can support a long-run population of 10001000 fish. Find a closed-form P(t)P(t) for the population tt months after stocking, using the logistic model with ceiling M=1000M = 1000.

By the logistic form,

P(t)  =  10001+Bect.P(t) \;=\; \frac{1000}{1 + B \, e^{-c t}}.

Our initial condition P(0)=100P(0) = 100 gives

100  =  10001+B,1+B  =  10,B  =  9.100 \;=\; \frac{1000}{1 + B}, \qquad 1 + B \;=\; 10, \qquad B \;=\; 9.

The reading at t=3t = 3 gives

250  =  10001+9e3c,1+9e3c  =  4,e3c  =  13.250 \;=\; \frac{1000}{1 + 9 \, e^{-3 c}}, \qquad 1 + 9 \, e^{-3 c} \;=\; 4, \qquad e^{-3 c} \;=\; \tfrac{1}{3}.

Taking ln\ln and applying LII gives 3c=ln3-3 c = -\ln 3, so c=(ln3)/30.366c = (\ln 3)/3 \approx 0.366. Therefore

P(t)  =  10001+9e(ln3/3)t.P(t) \;=\; \frac{1000}{1 + 9 \, e^{-(\ln 3 / 3) \, t}}.

The inflection point (the moment of fastest growth) occurs at

t  =  ln9c  =  2ln3(ln3)/3  =  6 months,t \;=\; \frac{\ln 9}{c} \;=\; \frac{2 \, \ln 3}{(\ln 3) / 3} \;=\; 6 \text{ months},

at which time P=500P = 500 fish. After month 66, growth slows.

Example 7 (Spread of an epidemic)

In a city of P=500000P = 500\,000 residents, an epidemic of a long-lasting flu is monitored. At the start of the first week, 200200 cases are known, and 300300 new cases are reported during the first week. Using the logistic model

f(t)  =  P1+Bect,f(t) \;=\; \frac{P}{1 + B \, e^{-c t}},

estimate the number of infected residents at the end of the sixth week.

The condition f(0)=200f(0) = 200 gives

200  =  5000001+B,1+B  =  2500,B  =  2499.200 \;=\; \frac{500\,000}{1 + B}, \qquad 1 + B \;=\; 2500, \qquad B \;=\; 2499.

At t=1t = 1, f(1)=500f(1) = 500:

500  =  5000001+2499ec,1+2499ec  =  1000,ec  =  9992499=333833.500 \;=\; \frac{500\,000}{1 + 2499 \, e^{-c}}, \qquad 1 + 2499 \, e^{-c} \;=\; 1000, \qquad e^{-c} \;=\; \frac{999}{2499} = \frac{333}{833}.

So c=ln(833/333)0.9169c = \ln(833/333) \approx 0.9169. At t=6t = 6,

f(6)  =  5000001+2499e6c    44600.f(6) \;=\; \frac{500\,000}{1 + 2499 \, e^{-6 c}} \;\approx\; 44\,600.

About 4500045\,000 residents are infected after six weeks.

Remark

The logistic family is used by sociologists for the spread of a rumour and by economists for the diffusion of knowledge about a new product, with an “infected” individual representing one who has heard the rumour or knows the product. The spreading mechanism is interpersonal contact rather than mass media; the mass-media setting of the previous section uses the bounded-growth family y=k(My)y' = k(M - y) instead. Bounded growth has no inflection point: its slope is largest at t=0t = 0 and decreases monotonically.

Problem 10

For the logistic function y(t)=M/(1+Bect)y(t) = M / (1 + B \, e^{-c t}) with M,B,c>0M, B, c > 0:

  1. Show y(0)=M/(1+B)y(0) = M / (1 + B) and that y(t)My(t) \to M as tt \to \infty.
  2. Show the inflection point of yy occurs at t=(lnB)/ct = (\ln B) / c, at height y=M/2y = M/2.
  3. Show the maximum growth rate is ymax=cM/4y'_{\max} = c \, M / 4, attained at the inflection point.
Problem 11

A fruit-fly culture follows the logistic model with capacity M=1000M = 1000. The culture starts with 5050 flies and reaches 200200 flies after 55 days.

  1. Determine BB from the initial condition.
  2. Determine cc from the reading at t=5t = 5, in closed form.
  3. Find the time at which the population first reaches 500500 (the inflection point), and check it equals (lnB)/c(\ln B)/c from part 1 of the previous problem.

Exercises

Exercise 1

A start-up’s revenue is modelled by R(t)=2te0.1tR(t) = 2 t \, e^{0.1 \, t} in millions of pounds, with tt in years from the founding.

  1. Compute R(t)R'(t) by the product rule.
  2. Take lnR\ln R and differentiate to express R(t)/R(t)R'(t)/R(t) as a single closed-form expression.
  3. Find every t>0t > 0 at which the percentage rate of growth equals exactly 20%20\% per year, in closed form.
Exercise 2

The demand for a particular software licence is q=10005p2q = 1000 - 5 p^{2} at price pp pounds, valid on 0p140 \leq p \leq 14.

  1. Find E(p)E(p) in closed form and show E(p)=2p2/(200p2)E(p) = 2 p^{2} / (200 - p^{2}).
  2. Find the price at which demand is unit-elastic, in closed form.
  3. The price is currently p0=8p_{0} = 8. Is demand elastic or inelastic at p0p_{0}? Will a small price increase from p0p_{0} raise or lower revenue? Justify with the identity R(p)=f(p)(1E(p))R'(p) = f(p) (1 - E(p)).
Exercise 3

For the demand q=50/pq = 50 / p on p>0p > 0:

  1. Compute E(p)E(p) in closed form and verify that elasticity is constant in pp.
  2. Conclude that revenue R(p)=pqR(p) = p \, q has the same value at every price p>0p > 0, and compute that value.
  3. State, for a general demand of the form f(p)=Kpaf(p) = K \, p^{-a} with K,a>0K, a > 0, the elasticity E(p)E(p) in closed form, and explain in one sentence why a=1a = 1 is the dividing case between rising and falling revenue.
Exercise 4

A city’s monthly volume of landfill waste follows

W(t)  =  M(MW0)ektW(t) \;=\; M - (M - W_{0}) \, e^{-k t}

where W(0)=W0W(0) = W_{0}, MM is the long-run steady-state value, and k>0k > 0.

  1. Verify WW satisfies W(t)=k(MW(t))W'(t) = k \, (M - W(t)) for any choice of W0W_{0}.
  2. The city’s data are W0=200W_{0} = 200 tonnes, M=800M = 800 tonnes, and W(12)=500W(12) = 500 tonnes (one year after monitoring began). Find kk in closed form involving ln2\ln 2.
  3. Find the time at which WW first reaches 700700 tonnes.
Exercise 5

A glucose IV is set to a fixed rate rr, with metabolic clearance constant λ\lambda. The excess glucose satisfies

A(t)  =  rλA(t),A(0)=0,A'(t) \;=\; r - \lambda \, A(t), \qquad A(0) = 0,

and we write M=r/λM = r/\lambda.

  1. State A(t)A(t) in closed form using the bounded-growth theorem.
  2. The IV is shut off at time TT, at which point A(T)=(3/4)MA(T) = (3/4) M. After shutoff the body clears glucose with the same constant λ\lambda, so the post-shutoff dynamics are A(t)=λA(t)A'(t) = -\lambda \, A(t). Find λT\lambda T in closed form involving ln4\ln 4.
  3. Express the time required, after shutoff, for the excess glucose to fall back to 0.1M0.1 \, M, in closed form involving ln\ln.
Exercise 6

A bounded-growth process and a pure exponential decay are connected. Let y(t)=M(1ekt)y(t) = M(1 - e^{-k t}) be the bounded growth, and let g(t)=My(t)g(t) = M - y(t) be the residual gap.

  1. Show gg satisfies g(t)=kg(t)g'(t) = -k \, g(t) with g(0)=Mg(0) = M (pure exponential decay).
  2. State the half-life of gg in closed form, and show it equals the time at which yy first reaches M/2M/2.
  3. Show that on any interval [a,a+T1/2][a, a + T_{1/2}] with T1/2=(ln2)/kT_{1/2} = (\ln 2)/k, the curve yy covers exactly half of the deficit remaining at the start of the interval, regardless of aa.
Exercise 7

In the early stage of logistic growth, when yy is small compared with MM, the logistic ODE

y(t)  =  cMy(My)y'(t) \;=\; \frac{c}{M} \, y \, (M - y)

nearly coincides with a pure exponential growth equation.

  1. Show that if y(t)/My(t) / M is negligible compared with 11, then y(t)cy(t)y'(t) \approx c \, y(t).
  2. Conclude that the logistic curve initially looks like a pure exponential with growth constant cc, and verify this by computing y(0)/y(0)y'(0)/y(0) in closed form for the logistic family y(t)=M/(1+Bect)y(t) = M / (1 + B \, e^{-c t}).
  3. Show that y(0)/y(0)y'(0)/y(0) approaches cc as BB \to \infty, that is, when the initial population is a very small fraction of the ceiling.
Exercise 8

A rumour spreads through a community of P=10000P = 10\,000 people according to the logistic model with parameters BB and cc. Initially 5050 people know the rumour; after 22 days, 500500 know.

  1. Determine BB from the initial condition.
  2. Determine cc in closed form involving ln\ln.
  3. Estimate the day on which the rate of new infections is maximal, and the cumulative number of people who know the rumour on that day.
Exercise 9

A demand function q=f(p)q = f(p) on p>0p > 0 has E(p)=1+pE(p) = 1 + p. Show that f(p)=Kep/pf(p) = K \, e^{-p} / p satisfies this elasticity condition for every positive constant KK, by computing pf(p)/f(p)-\, p \, f'(p) / f(p) directly for this ff and verifying that the result equals 1+p1 + p.